On the Horizon – Will spring sunshine burst into early summer?

John gives us his latest thoughts on likely weather trends on the horizon over the next few weeks. 

At the end of a turbulent spring of highs and lows, we’re finally being treated to weather that suits almost everyone. Cool nights and fine, warm days. Perfect wedding weather! But how long will the (meteorological) honeymoon last? Will late spring pass seamlessly into a fine early summer?

Well, this tranquil spell of weather belies the fact that the UK is currently sitting on something of a knife-edge – between hot Continental air building to our south and much fresher Atlantic winds poised to our west. Such a dividing line in the atmosphere almost always leads to rain…

MONDAY 21ST MAY – SUNDAY 27TH MAY

The blooms get a watering

The lingering confetti will barely have been swept up before thundery showers start to loom from the west. As with all thundery breakdowns, the details will be elusive. But I expect showers to break out haphazardly from the west, with eastern areas of the UK increasingly at risk from downpours through the early part of the week. If you’re off to the Chelsea Flower Show, waterproofs may be needed.

In fact there could be significant impacts from these localised cloudbursts; even with the risk of flash flooding. It’s one to watch…

However through the second half of the week, cooler and drier conditions will topple in from the west. A dry start to the summer Test Match Series would be welcome; and the good news is that I expect a return to fine days and chilly nights. Atlantic air keeps the Continental heat at bay – for the time being…

‘Goldilocks weather’. Not too hot. Not too cold.

 

MONDAY 28TH MAY – SUNDAY 3RD JUNE

High hopes for the Holiday

There’s been an awful lot of to-ing and fro-ing from computer models about what happens next. But my thinking hasn’t really changed that much at all. I expect the month to end with high pressure ensuring plenty of fine and dry weather. Temperatures in the low, even mid, twenties may be commonplace. But the really hot stuff will be fended off to our south. With a bit of luck, for many enjoying the Bank Holiday and for those planning to go to outdoor events such as Glyndebourne, the weather looks like behaving itself. ‘Goldilocks weather’. Not too hot. Not too cold. And mostly dry.

As we head into June, however, I expect the equilibrium to end. With time, a dip in the jet stream increases the likelihood of rain spreading from the west. At the same time, there’s an increasing chance that a plume of heat will be sucked up from the south. The result of this collision may well be noisy! I expect another thundery breakdown.

 

MONDAY 4TH JUNE – SUNDAY 17TH JUNE

Rainbow weather – A drop of rain, A drop of sunshine

At the risk of repeating myself, the timing and detail of such breakdowns is inherently fraught with uncertainty – especially at this range. However, experience suggests that with time, fresh Atlantic winds will take over. They often do at this time of year. A healthy mixture of sunshine and showers can be expected to ensue.

As we head deeper into June, it’s going to be a ‘hit and miss’ spell for your outdoor plans. So you’ll be well-advised to keep an eye on our QuickCasts and QuickChats right here at weathertrending.

All the while, for heat-lovers, high temperatures will be tantalisingly close on the near-Continent. It’s only a matter of time before southerly winds suck the heat our way…

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