John gives us his latest thoughts on likely weather trends on the horizon over the next few weeks.
We’re only just into June, but it’s felt like summer for many weeks. Damp Atlantic winds have been kept at bay, allowing a record-breaking May of sunshine and warmth (and the odd dramatic thunderstorm). But while many of us have been basking in the high 20s Celsius, a few of us feel short-changed. That wind off the North Sea has kept the likes of Aberdeen, Scarborough and Skegness shivering!
However, payback time is about to arrive! As I’ve been indicating in recent blogs, after several weeks, the jet stream is gearing up to sweep the westerlies back in. And with this will come big changes. There will be winners and losers…
MONDAY 11TH JUNE – SUNDAY 17TH JUNE
Summer’s over, just as it begins?
After a steamy weekend of warmth, thunder and yet more of that North Sea mist, thundery downpours are still possible across the south and east through the early part of the week. But by midweek they will have retreated into the near-Continent as fresher Atlantic winds start to edge in from the north. This change will bring a very different complexion to our weather. Expect a brief dry spell, with temperatures in the mid to high teens for many. And as winds begin to turn to a westerly, for the first time for weeks, sheltered east coasts will be warmest and sunniest.
But it’s later in the week that the west-east change in fortunes really cranks up! As the jet stream gets stronger, so wet and windy weather will drive in from the Atlantic. Northern and western parts of the UK will be buffeted by some heavy rain and blustery winds. It’ll feel cool too. For Highland Scotland, treated to warm sunshine for so many weeks, the honeymoon will be over!
If you’re hoping for a dry weekend – good luck! But southern and eastern areas look, well, shall we say least wet!
Wimbledon’s on the way and I’m confident it won’t be a washout
MONDAY 18TH JUNE – SUNDAY 24TH JUNE
A cool Solstice
So is this just a mid-month blip? Or having flattered many of us to start, is June set to deceive? It’s a good question. I mentioned a few weeks ago my caution at many meteorological agencies’ predictions of a warm and dry summer ahead. The consensus is still that the resurgent jet stream will soon be deflected away from our shores again, allowing a block of dry and settled weather to become re-established.
This may happen with time, but through this week I still expect Atlantic winds to remain dominant across the UK. They’ll be cool winds too, restricting daytime temperatures to the teens for much of the time, with some chilly nights to come. So the druids might need a few layers under their robes as they welcome the Summer Solstice at Stonehenge.
Spectators at Queens Club and Royal Ascot will also be hoping for fine weather. Situated across the southeast of the UK, these events will benefit from being sheltered from those Atlantic winds. As a rule, I expect northwestern areas to see most of any wet weather through this week. But as high pressure begins to build in, showers should become less potent with time.
MONDAY 25TH JUNE – SUNDAY 8TH JULY
Sunshine for SW19?
So we end the month with hints of positivity, but I’m cautious about a return to a prolonged dry and warm spell that many long-range computer models are still set on. Steady as she goes…
I expect Atlantic winds to maintain their cooler influence into July. But, although further showers can be expected, especially in the west, there’ll be a lot of fine weather. Wimbledon’s on the way, and I’m confident it won’t be a washout. Just up the road at the Hampton Court Flower Show, the blooms should be at their dazzling best after such a bumper start to summer.
We may have to wait a while longer for real heat to return. There’s a lot stored up further south across Europe now. So I’ll be looking for signs of southerly winds to come our way through July.
For the time being, the good folks of Aberdeen, Scarborough and Skegness will just be pleased if those easterlies are kept at bay.
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