August was a remarkably, well, normal month! It’s been ‘middle-of-the-road’; a healthy blend of rain and shine, warm and cool. But as we discussed recently for Countryfile, the atmosphere is behaving in a peculiar way this year, courtesy of a fitful jet stream. Unsurprisingly perhaps, computer forecasts have struggled with its fickle twists and turns. I was sceptical about their misguided attempts to continue the heatwave through August, and they are now proving unreliable for September too. Updates below in bold.
Forecast change early in period
Prolonged fine spell less likely
Wetter end to the month
MONDAY 3RD SEPTEMBER – SUNDAY 9TH SEPTEMBER
Turning very cool and showery
After a warm weekend for many, a cold front will edge southwards early in the week, bringing a narrow band of cloudy and damp weather, followed by a marked drop in temperature. From midweek the forecast has changed dramatically. A small area of low pressure will form across the UK, bringing very cool and showery weather, with some more prolonged rain to some northern and eastern areas. Temperatures will be suppressed until the weekend, with overnight temperatures close to freezing in some rural areas.
MONDAY 10TH SEPTEMBER – SUNDAY 16TH SEPTEMBER
Brief drier and warmer weather
Whilst the cool and showery weather will ease away, high pressure may only temporarily build across the UK. Some fine and warm weather may develop for a time, especially across the south and east of the UK. However later in the week, Atlantic fronts will gradually spread cooler and more unsettled weather from the northwest.
…it’s likely that the atmosphere will receive a shake-up later in the month
MONDAY 17TH SEPTEMBER – SUNDAY 30TH SEPTEMBER
One or more violent storms may threaten the Caribbean and North America later in the month. Sadly, I predict that we’ll be threatened by violently misleading headlines to scare us back home. It happens every year. But beyond the hype, it’s likely that the atmosphere will receive a shake-up later in the month, which may have a knock-on effect on our weather.
There is the potential for a storm to wander north through the Atlantic and jolt the jet stream into a new phase. Just how that manifests itself on our side of ‘The Pond’ is impossible to say at this range. However, beyond the equinox, I expect some wetter and windier spells. Beware flying conkers!
But for how long? Remember how fickle our jet stream has been this year. I expect October to pull another rabbit out of the hat. It’s an odd year.
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