Within the forthcoming week we will issue our Early Winter 2018/19 Forecast. Yet as I write this blog, it feels more like summer! Temperatures have soared as the predicted southerly winds have wafted across the UK in recent days. Will this be the last week of 20+ degrees this year? Maybe. Change is afoot as wild, wet and windy weather blows the heat away this weekend. Throw in a US hurricane and a named UK storm, and there’s a lot to talk about, and Sara and I did just that in this week’s Facebook Live!
A cooler outlook
Spells of rain and blustery winds
Increasing risk of frost and fog
MONDAY 15TH OCTOBER – SUNDAY 21ST OCTOBER
Bye bye warmth!
Talking of ‘wild, wet and windy’ – while Storm Callum sweeps past, the remnants of Hurricane Michael will already be getting scooped up by the jet stream and catapulted across the Atlantic in our direction this weekend. Don’t be too alarmed! These remnants will form just one of a series of low pressures systems that will reach the UK in the week ahead. I don’t expect anything as extreme as we’ve seen overseas. But we will see waves of wet weather and blustery winds, interspersed by some brighter, fresher days. However, the precise timing of these systems will be difficult to nail down at this range, as they hurtle towards us in quick succession.
As westerlies replace southerlies, you’ll notice a drop in temperatures after mid-month. It’ll be chilly enough, perhaps, for a touch of frost in some rural hollows during the calmer interludes. All in all, a fairly typical week of autumn weather lies ahead.
Not great news for those on half-term…
MONDAY 22ND OCTOBER – SUNDAY 28TH OCTOBER
A chilly dampness
In my last blog I hinted that the jet stream would begin to slow down towards the end of the month. There are signs that areas of low pressure many begin to stall close-by to the UK, as jet stream winds meander and weaken. In the short-term this may mean a period of more prolonged wet weather for some. Not great news for those on half-term, I know…
So just how long will it hang around? Well there are hints that later in the week, high pressure may begin to nudge in from the north, allowing a drier spell of weather. This may take a while, but there’s the hope of some sunnier days with lighter winds. However the air may well be arriving from the north or east by then. So the other feature of the week will probably be a further drop in temperatures. Single figure highs are likely to become more prevalent, especially where morning fog patches linger. I also expect frost to become more widespread under clear skies.
I expect a crisp, drier period around the turn of the month…
MONDAY 29TH OCTOBER – SUNDAY 11TH NOVEMBER
Cold start – Milder later?
Computer model forecasts for this period have become very vague in recent days. Partly because of this, no serious forecaster will give you a precise sequence of events. There is also the possibility that further Atlantic tropical cyclones may throw a spanner in the works. Models simply cannot foresee the atmospheric responses at this range – such cyclones may or may not even form!
One common signal is for fairly chilly weather, at least initially. I expect a crisp, drier period around the turn of the month, with the ongoing prospect of frost and fog.
Reverting to the law of averages, it’s likely that with time, Atlantic weather systems will begin to threaten wind and rain from the west. In the process, these systems would supply milder air too. Indeed the forecast from other meteorological centres is for predominantly mild, wet and windy weather to persist into early winter.
What does weathertrending think? Don’t forget – our Early Winter Forecast is issued in the week ahead.
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